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事件档案62:中国试射洲际弹道导弹,国外如何看?

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9月25日,中国国防部发布了一份简短的声明。

中国人民解放军火箭军向太平洋相关公海海域,成功发射1发携载训练模拟弹头的洲际弹道导弹,准确落入预定海域。此次导弹发射,是年度军事训练例行性安排,符合国际法和国际惯例,不针对任何特定国家和目标。

目前看来,如果没有国防部的声明,国外都不知道这回事,什么时候打的,打到哪里?一概不知。

但他们也不用太在意,我们不过是在展示世界核平而已!

因为国外媒体的态度和所掌的内容大同小异,以下摘出一篇BBC的文章。

China test-fires ICBM for first time in decades

中国几十年来首次试射洲际弹道导弹

来源 BBC 新闻 Kelly Ng


China has said it successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean.

中国表示,它成功地向太平洋发射了一枚携带假弹头的洲际弹道导弹 (ICBM)。


The ICMB was launched at 08:44 local time (04:44 GMT) on Wednesday and "fell into expected sea areas", Beijing's defence ministry said, adding that the test launch was "routine" and part of its "annual training".

北京国防部表示,ICMB 于当地时间周三 08:44(格林威治标准时间 04:44)发射,并“落入预期的海域”,并补充说,试射是“例行公事”,是其“年度训练”的一部分。


The type of missile and its flight path remained unclear, but Chinese state media said Beijing had "informed the countries concerned in advance".

导弹的类型及其飞行路线尚不清楚,但中国官方媒体表示,北京已“提前通知有关国家”。


Japan later said that it received "no notice" of the test launch.

日本随后表示,它没有收到试射的通知。


China's nuclear weapon tests usually take place domestically, and it previously test-fired ICBMs west into the Taklamakan Desert in the Xinjiang region.

中国的核武器试验通常在国内进行,此前曾向西试射洲际弹道导弹,进入新疆地区的塔克拉玛干沙漠。


This is believed to be the first time since 1980 that it launched an ICBM into international waters.

据信,这是自 1980 年以来中国首次向国际水域发射洲际弹道导弹。


"Unless I'm missing something, I think this is essentially the first time this has happened - and been announced as such - in a long time," Ankit Panda, a nuclear weapons specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on X.

“除非我遗漏了什么,否则我认为这基本上是很长一段时间以来第一次发生——而且是这样宣布的,”卡内基国际和平基金会的核武器专家安吉特·潘达在X上写道。


He added that Beijing's description of the test as "routine" and "annual" was odd, "given that they don't do this sort of thing either routinely or annually".

他补充说,北京将这种测试描述为“例行”和“每年”很奇怪,“因为他们既不是例行的,也不是每年都会做这种事情”。


The Japanese government said on Wednesday that China had given it no prior notice of the ICBM launch.

日本政府周三表示,中国没有事先通知它发射洲际弹道导弹。


"There was no notice from the Chinese side in advance," government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters.

“中方事先没有通知,”政府发言人林芳正(Yoshimasa Hayashi)告诉记者。


Japan's defence ministry had earlier said there was no damage to its vessels.

日本防卫省早些时候曾表示,没有损坏的船只。


"We will continue to collect and analyse information on the movements of the Chinese military and will take all possible precautions in our vigilance and monitoring," the ministry said early Wednesday afternoon, according to Japanese broadcaster NHK.

据日本广播公司 NHK 报道,该部周三下午早些时候表示:“我们将继续收集和分析有关中国军队动向的信息,并将采取一切可能的预防措施进行警惕和监控。


When China last did such a test - in May 1980 - the ICBM flew 9,070km and landed in the Pacific. That test involved 18 Chinese naval ships and is still considered one of China's biggest naval missions.

中国上一次进行此类试验时——1980 年 5 月——洲际弹道导弹飞行了 9,070 公里并降落在太平洋上。那次测试涉及 18 艘中国海军舰艇,至今仍被认为是中国最大的海军任务之一。


"Timing is everything," Drew Thompson, a visiting research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, wrote on X.

“时机就是一切,”新加坡李光耀公共政策学院的访问研究员德鲁·汤普森在X上写道。


"[China's] statement claims the launch does not target any country, but there are high-levels of tension between China and Japan, Philippines, and of course perpetual tension with Taiwan."

“(中国的)声明称,此次发射没有针对任何国家,但中国与日本、菲律宾之间存在高度紧张关系,当然还有与台湾的长期紧张关系。


"The launch is a powerful signal intended to intimidate everyone," he added.

“发射是一个强有力的信号,旨在恐吓所有人,”他补充说。


John Ridge, a US-based defence analyst, said China could have conducted the test as a form of "posturing or signalling to the United States".

美国国防分析师约翰·里奇 (John Ridge) 表示,中国进行这次试验可能是作为“向美国做出姿态或发出信号”的一种形式。


While the relationship between Beijing and Washington has improved in the past year, China's increasing assertiveness in the region remains a sticking point.

虽然北京和华盛顿之间的关系在过去一年中有所改善,但中国在该地区日益强硬的姿态仍然是一个症结所在。


Tensions have ramped up between China and the Philippines as their ships have repeatedly collided in disputed waters. Last month, Japan scrambled fighter jets after it accused a Chinese spy plane of breaching its air space, a move that it called "utterly unacceptable".

中国与 Philippines 之间的紧张局势加剧,因为他们的船只在有争议的水域多次相撞。上个月,日本在指责一架中国间谍飞机侵犯其领空后紧急出动战斗机,称此举“完全不可接受”。


Beijing's claims over self-governed Taiwan have been another source of strain.

北京对自治台湾的主权主张是另一个紧张的来源。


Taiwan's defence ministry said earlier on Wednesday that China had been carrying out "intensive" missile firing and other drills recently. In the same statement, the ministry said it had detected 23 Chinese military aircraft operating around Taiwan on "long-range missions".

台湾国防部周三早些时候表示,中国最近一直在进行“密集”导弹发射和其他演习。在同一份声明中,该部表示,它已检测到 23 架中国军用飞机在台湾周围执行“远程任务”。


Beijing routinely sends ships and aircraft into Taiwanese waters and airspace in what analysts say is a "greyzone warfare" tactic meant to normalise the incursions.

北京经常派遣船只和飞机进入台湾水域和领空,分析人士称这是一种“灰色地带战争”策略,旨在使入侵正常化。


In July this year, China suspended its nuclear arms control talks with Washington, in retaliation for the US' continued arms sales to Taiwan.

今年 7 月,中国暂停了与华盛顿的核军控谈判,以报复美国继续向台湾出售武器。


In a report published last year, the Pentagon estimated that China has more than 500 operational nuclear warheads in its arsenal, of which approximately 350 are ICBMs.

在去年发布的一份报告中,五角大楼估计,中国的军火库中有 500 多枚正在运行的核弹头,其中大约 350 枚是洲际弹道导弹。


The report also projected that China will reach over 1,000 warheads by 2030. Still, that is a fraction of the more than 5,000 warheads that the US and Russia each say they possess.

该报告还预测,到 2030 年,中国的核弹头数量将超过 1,000 枚。不过,这只是美国和俄罗斯各自声称拥有的 5,000 多枚核弹头的一小部分。


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